Geography Colloquium: Dr. Patrick Bitterman (Kent State University) speaks on 'Modeling a Watershed That Models Itself: Governance, Endogeneity, and the Chesapeake Bay'

The Chesapeake Bay restoration effort is coordinated through one of the most elaborate modeling systems in environmental governance, including a linked suite of simulation models that helps plan restoration, allocate pollution budgets among member jurisdictions, and account for progress at multiple scales. This presentation will explore the system from two contrasting perspectives. First, I will demonstrate a computational framework that couples an empirically calibrated agent-based model with GeoAI techniques to simulate how actors plan, select, and implement management practices. The framework facilitates the exploration of alternative governance scenarios (e.g., least-cost targeting, proximity to the estuary, benefits to socially vulnerable communities) and corresponding ecological outcomes. Second, I will present the results of interviews, surveys, and a facilitated workshop that collectively suggest that the influence feeds back in the other direction - the existing modeling suite has shaped the system it was built to help manage. For example, practitioners doubt the model's outputs but are compelled to use it, the management practices most likely to spread are those the model can credit and not necessarily those rated most effective at reducing nutrient pollution, and stakeholders believe that "we monitor what we model." I will show how one model has become endogenous to the Chesapeake Bay governance system it simulates, and consider what it means, both practically and